zbMATH — the first resource for mathematics

Examples
Geometry Search for the term Geometry in any field. Queries are case-independent.
Funct* Wildcard queries are specified by * (e.g. functions, functorial, etc.). Otherwise the search is exact.
"Topological group" Phrases (multi-words) should be set in "straight quotation marks".
au: Bourbaki & ti: Algebra Search for author and title. The and-operator & is default and can be omitted.
Chebyshev | Tschebyscheff The or-operator | allows to search for Chebyshev or Tschebyscheff.
"Quasi* map*" py: 1989 The resulting documents have publication year 1989.
so: Eur* J* Mat* Soc* cc: 14 Search for publications in a particular source with a Mathematics Subject Classification code (cc) in 14.
"Partial diff* eq*" ! elliptic The not-operator ! eliminates all results containing the word elliptic.
dt: b & au: Hilbert The document type is set to books; alternatively: j for journal articles, a for book articles.
py: 2000-2015 cc: (94A | 11T) Number ranges are accepted. Terms can be grouped within (parentheses).
la: chinese Find documents in a given language. ISO 639-1 language codes can also be used.

Operators
a & b logic and
a | b logic or
!ab logic not
abc* right wildcard
"ab c" phrase
(ab c) parentheses
Fields
any anywhere an internal document identifier
au author, editor ai internal author identifier
ti title la language
so source ab review, abstract
py publication year rv reviewer
cc MSC code ut uncontrolled term
dt document type (j: journal article; b: book; a: book article)
A rational route to randomness. (English) Zbl 0898.90042

Summary: The concept of adaptively rational equilibrium (A.R.E.) is introduced. Agents adapt their beliefs over time by choosing from a finite set of different predictor or expectations functions. Each predictor is a function of past observations and has a performance or fitness measure which is publicly available. Agents make a rational choice concerning the predictors based upon their past performance. This results in a dynamics across predictor choice which is coupled to the equilibrium dynamics of the endogenous variables.

As a simple, but typical, example we consider a cobweb type demand-supply model where agents can choose between rational and naive expectations. In an unstable market with (small) positive information costs for rational expectations, a high intensity of choice to switch predictors leads to highly irregular equilibrium prices converging to a strange attractor. The irregularity of the equilibrium time paths is explained by the existence of a so-called homoclinic orbit and its associated complicated dynamical phenomena. Thus local instability and global complicated dynamics may be a feature of a fully rational notion of equilibrium.


MSC:
91B62Growth models in economics
91B52Special types of equilibria in economics