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Monte Carlo analysis of convertible bonds with reset clauses. (English) Zbl 1099.91517
Summary: This paper analyzes some features of non-callable convertible bonds with reset clauses via both analytic and Monte Carlo simulation approaches. Assume that the underlying stock receives no dividends and that it has credit risk of the issuer. We mean by reset that the conversion price is adjusted downwards if the underlying stock price does not exceed pre-specified prices. Reset convertibles are usually issued when the outlook for the issuer is unfavorable. The price of any convertible bonds can be approximately viewed as a sum of values of an otherwise identical non-convertible bond plus an embedded option to convert the bond into the underlying stock. In this paper, we first develop an exact formula for the conversion option value of the European riskless convertible in the classical Black–Scholes–Merton framework. It is shown by Monte Carlo simulation that conversion option value estimates of the American risky convertible are located in a certain region defined by this formula. From estimates of the conversion probability, it is also shown that there exists an optimal reset time in the latter half of the trading interval.

91B28Finance etc. (MSC2000)
91B30Risk theory, insurance
65C05Monte Carlo methods