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Putting a price on temperature. (English) Zbl 1164.62077
A market of futures and options on different temperature indices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is considered. The temperature dynamics is modelled by a multivariate continuous-time AR(p) process with seasonally varying volatility. Pricing measures for futures are introduced via the Girsanov transform. An explicit Black formula and its hedging strategy are evaluated for the call option price on cumulative average temperature (CAT) futures. Suitable Monte Carlo simulations are presented for prices of call options on some other temperature indices. The models were fitted to a data on Stockholm daily average temperatures from 1961 to 2006.
MSC:
62P05Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
62M10Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. (statistics)
91B26Market models (auctions, bargaining, bidding, selling, etc.)
65C05Monte Carlo methods
91B84Economic time series analysis