Are mortality projections always more pessimistic when disaggregated by cause of death? (English) Zbl 0876.92032

Wilmoth, John R.

Math. Popul. Stud. 5, No. 4, 293-319 (1995).

Summary: It is often observed that mortality projections are more pessimistic when disaggregated by cause of death. This article explores the generality and strength of this relationship under a variety of forecasting models. First, a simple measure of the pessimism inherent in cause-based mortality forecasts is derived. Second, it is shown that the pessimism of cause-based forecasts can be approximated using only data on the distribution of deaths by cause in two previous time periods. Third, using Japanese mortality data during 1951-1990, the analysis demonstrates that the pessimism of cause-based forecasts can be atttributed mainly to observed trends in mortality due to cancer and heart disease, with smaller contribution due to trends in stroke (women only), pneumonia/bronchitis, accidents, and suicide. The last point requires the important qualification, however, that observed trends in cancer and heart disease may be severely biased due to changes in diagnostic practice.

MSC:

91D20

Mathematical geography and demography

Keywords:

disaggregation; demography; mortality projections; mortality forecasts

References:

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