Modeling approach to investigate the dynamics of Zika virus fever: a neglected disease in Africa. (English) Zbl 1382.92244

Mpeshe, Saul C.; Nyerere, Nkuba; Sanga, Stephano

Int. J. Adv. Appl. Math. Mech. 4, No. 3, 14-21 (2017).

Summary: A simple SIR model of Zika virus fever (ZIKVF) dynamics has been presented in order to compute the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal R_0\) and investigate the relative effect of each parameter in \(\mathcal R_0\) through sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices indicated that \(\mathcal R_0\) is most sensitive to the natural death rate of Aedes mosquitoes, and least sensitive to the recovery rate of human. This means that increasing the natural death rate of mosquitoes and the recovery rate of human will reduce \(\mathcal R_0\) and hence, control of the disease is possible. Numerical simulation shows that ZIKVF if introduced in a system can persist because \(\mathcal R_0=7.03 > 1\). Further studies are required in order to quantify the effect of ZIKVF in the society and the countermeasures to combat the disease.

MSC:

92D30

Epidemiology

Keywords:

Zika virus; Zika virus fever; basic reproduction number; Metzler matrix; sensitivity analysis