Uncertain evidence and artificial analysis.

*(English)*Zbl 0655.62110Summary: A belief function measure of uncertainty, associated with a network based knowledge structure, effectively defines an artificial analyst (e.g., an expert system) capable of making uncertain judgments. In practice, a belief function is typically constructed by combining independent components developed on local areas of the network from inputs such as accepted causal theories, probabilistic judgments by experts, or empirical sample data. Representation of the network in a special form called a ‘tree of cliques’ leads to a locally controlled algorithm that propagates locally defined beliefs through the tree, and fuses the resulting beliefs at the nodes, in such a way as to simultaneously compute marginal beliefs over all nodes of the tree. The paper develops a simple hypothetical example from the field of reliability to illustrate these ideas.

##### MSC:

62P99 | Applications of statistics |

62A01 | Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics |

62N99 | Survival analysis and censored data |

90B25 | Reliability, availability, maintenance, inspection in operations research |

68T99 | Artificial intelligence |

94C99 | Circuits, networks |

##### Keywords:

belief function measure of uncertainty; network based knowledge structure; expert system; tree of cliques; reliability
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\textit{A. P. Dempster} and \textit{A. Kong}, J. Stat. Plann. Inference 20, No. 3, 355--368 (1988; Zbl 0655.62110)

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##### References:

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