Exchangeable mortality projection. (English) Zbl 1482.91189

The increasing of the life expectancy has serious financial implications. Changes in mortality need to be accurately predicted because the government policies, funds allocation for government services, pricing life annuities and reserve calculations have to be based on reliable mortality forecasting. The most popular model for mortality forecasting is the classical Lee-Carter model in which it is supposed that mortality is a function of age and year of death.
Authors of the paper analyse various modification of the Lee-Carter model and derive the new multi-population Lee-Carter type model in which the exchangeability is allowed between parameters of a group of populations. The proposed forecasting model is being tested for several groups of countries.


91G05 Actuarial mathematics
91D20 Mathematical geography and demography
Full Text: DOI


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