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A systems approach to analysing sub-state conflicts. (English) Zbl 1169.91441

Summary: The purpose of this paper is to provide a more holistic approach to analysing the impact of all the behaviour of a conflict’s participants its overall dynamics, using the example of the Northern Irish troubles.
A novel multivariate time series approach developed by Paul Smoker is presented which can map the dynamics of this conflict and its causal inferences as a series or “systemograms”.
The case example reveals high levels of autocorrelation in the variety of techniques used by the state security authorities to suppress terrorism, indicating their strong role in maintaining this conflict. When more than one party exhibits such behaviour, the conflict “locks in”.

MSC:

91F10 History, political science
93A99 General systems theory
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[1] DOI: 10.1177/001316445701700204 · doi:10.1177/001316445701700204
[2] Moloney, E. (2002), ”Panorama missed the real story of collusion in Ulster”, Daily Telegraph, 25 June.
[3] DOI: 10.1016/S0306-4573(96)00052-0 · doi:10.1016/S0306-4573(96)00052-0
[4] Smoker, P. (1969), ”A time series analysis of Sino-Indian relations”, J. of Conflict Research, Vol. 13 No. 2, pp. 172-91.
[5] DOI: 10.1177/0022002795039002006 · doi:10.1177/0022002795039002006
[6] Wold, H. (1949), ”On least squares regression with auto correlated variables & residuals”, Proceedings of the International Statistics Institute, Berne, Switzerland.
[7] DOI: 10.1177/002234337801500402 · doi:10.1177/002234337801500402
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