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An unsymmetrical information diffusion probability model for the risk evaluation of natural disasters based on rare sample cases. (Chinese. English summary) Zbl 1289.62136

Summary: Aiming at the difficulties of natural disaster (especially strong disaster incidents) violent devastation, less probability and rare collectable information, which restrict risk analysis and disaster evaluation, based on information diffusion idea and actual useable little cases, a sort of more universal unsymmetrical information diffusion idea is presented, and an improved “probability” evaluation model is developed. The assessment technique is used to evaluate the oceanic environment risk of pirate raid accident. The experimental result shows that it can objectively fit a suitable diffusion function of data structure from finite sample cases, and carries out the reasonable spread of rare sample cases information using this “probability” evaluation model. A new technique route is introduced for resolving the actual difficulties of imperfect information in natural disasters risk evaluation.

MSC:

62P12 Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics
91B30 Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010)
62B10 Statistical aspects of information-theoretic topics
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