×

Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before-after study. (English) Zbl 1469.62397

Summary: Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth century. Our estimate of the overall pattern of incumbency advantage over time is similar to previous estimates (although slightly lower), and we also find a pattern of increasing variation. More generally, our multilevel model represents a new method for estimating effects in before-after studies.

MSC:

62P15 Applications of statistics to psychology
62F15 Bayesian inference
91F10 History, political science
PDFBibTeX XMLCite
Full Text: DOI