Gelman, Andrew; Huang, Zaiying Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before-after study. (English) Zbl 1469.62397 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 103, No. 482, 437-446 (2008). Summary: Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth century. Our estimate of the overall pattern of incumbency advantage over time is similar to previous estimates (although slightly lower), and we also find a pattern of increasing variation. More generally, our multilevel model represents a new method for estimating effects in before-after studies. Cited in 2 Documents MSC: 62P15 Applications of statistics to psychology 62F15 Bayesian inference 91F10 History, political science Keywords:Bayesian inference; before-after study; congressional election; Gibbs sampler; incumbency advantage; Metropolis algorithm; multilevel model PDFBibTeX XMLCite \textit{A. Gelman} and \textit{Z. Huang}, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 103, No. 482, 437--446 (2008; Zbl 1469.62397) Full Text: DOI