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Modelling and simulation of a supply chain in an uncertain environment. (English) Zbl 0937.90047
Summary: This paper describes fuzzy modelling and simulation of a supply chain (SC) in an uncertain environment, as the first step in developing a decision support system. An SC is viewed as a series of facilities that performs the procurement of raw material, its transformation to intermediate and end-products, and distribution and selling of the end-products to customers. All the facilities in the SC are coupled and interrelated in a way that decisions made at one facility affect the performance of others. SC fuzzy models and a simulator cover operational SC control. The objective is to determine the stock levels and order quantities for each inventory in an SC during a finite time horizon to obtain an acceptable delivery performance at a reasonable total cost for the whole SC. Two sources of uncertainty inherent in the external environment in which the SC operates were identified and modelled: customer demand and external supply of raw material. They were interpreted and represented by fuzzy sets. In addition to the fuzzy SC models, a special SC simulator was developed. The SC simulator provides a dynamic view of the SC and assesses the impact of decisions recommended by the SC fuzzy models on SC performance.

90B50 Management decision making, including multiple objectives
90B06 Transportation, logistics and supply chain management
Full Text: DOI
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