×

zbMATH — the first resource for mathematics

Pandemic simulation of antivirals+school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available. (English) Zbl 1143.92321
Summary: A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model, EpiSimS, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective.
Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures.

MSC:
92C60 Medical epidemiology
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics
92D30 Epidemiology
91D30 Social networks; opinion dynamics
PDF BibTeX XML Cite
Full Text: DOI
References:
[1] Ackerman E, Elveback LR, Fox JP (1984) Simulation of infectious disease epidemics. Thomas, Springfield
[2] Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Valleron A, Vespignani A (2007) Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med 4:95–109 · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013
[3] De Jong MD, Thanh TT, Khanh TH, Hien VM, Smith GJD et al. (2005) Oseltamivir resistance during treatment of Influenza A (H5N1) infection. N Engl J Med 353:2667–2672 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa054512
[4] Del Valle S, Hethcote H, Hyman JM, Castillo-Chavez C (2005) Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model. Math Biosci 195:228–251 · Zbl 1065.92039 · doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2005.03.006
[5] Esposito S, Marchisio P, Bosis S, Lambertini L, Claut L et al. (2006) Clinical and economic impact of influenza vaccination on healthy children aged 2–5 years. Vaccine 25:629–635
[6] Fedson DS (2003) Pandemic influenza and the global vaccine supply. Clin Infect Dis 302:1519–1522
[7] Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A et al. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in southeast Asia. Nature 437:209–214 · doi:10.1038/nature04017
[8] German TC, Kadau K, Longini IM Jr, Macken CA (2006) Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:5935–5940 · doi:10.1073/pnas.0601266103
[9] Heymann A, Chodick G, Reichman B, Kokia E, Laufer J (2004) Influence of school closure on the incidence of viral respiratory diseases among children and on health care utilization. Pediatr Infect Dis J 23:675–677 · doi:10.1097/01.inf.0000128778.54105.06
[10] Lin J, Zhang J, Dong X, Fang H, Chen N, Su N et al. (2006) Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated adjuvanted whole-virion influenza A (H5N1) vaccine: a phase I randomized controlled trial. Lancet 368:991–997 · doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69294-5
[11] Longini IM, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159:623–633 · doi:10.1093/aje/kwh092
[12] Markel H, Stern AM, Navarro JA, Michalsen JR (2006) A historical assessment of nonpharmaceutical disease containment strategies employed by selected US communities during the second wave of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Unclassified Report 01-03-D-0017:1-275. Available: https://beta.saic.com/workshop/report/ . Accessed 20 February 2007
[13] Michaels J (2003) Commercial buildings energy consumption survey. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/cbecs2003/detailed_tables_2003/detailed_tables_2003.html
[14] Monto AS (2006) Vaccines and antiviral drugs in pandemic preparedness. Emerg Infect Dis 12(1):55–60. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/ndidod/EID/vol12no01/05-1068.htm. Accessed 15 February 2007
[15] Pang X, Zhu Z, Xu F, Guo J, Gong X, Liu D et al. (2003) Evaluation of control measures implemented in the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Beijing. JAMA 290:3215–3221 · doi:10.1001/jama.290.24.3215
[16] Stroud PD, Del Valle SY, Sydoriak SJ, Riese JM, Mniszewski SM (2007) Spatial dynamics of pandemic influenza in a massive artificial society. JASSS 10(4):9. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/10/4/9.html. Accessed 14 February 2008
[17] Tsolia MN, Logotheti I, Papadopooulos NG, Mavrikou M, Spyridis NP, Drossatou P, Kafetzis D, Konstantopoulos A, The Outpatient Flu Study Group (2006) Impact of influenza infection in healthy children examined as outpatients and their families. Vaccine 24(33–34):5970–5976 · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.006
[18] US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) (2005) HHS pandemic influenza plan. Available: http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/pdf/HHSPandemicInfluenzaPlan.pdf . Accessed 20 February 2007
[19] US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) (2006a) Antivirals–state allocations. Available: http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/states/antivirals.html . Accessed 20 February 2007
[20] US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) (2006b) School district (K-12) pandemic influenza planning checklist. Available: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/school/schoolchecklist.html . Accessed 21 February 2007
[21] US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) (2008) Community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation. Available: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/community/commitigation.html . Accessed 8 February 2008
[22] US Department of Transportation (DOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2003) NHTS 2001 Highlights Report BTS03-05
[23] US Government Accountability Office (GAO) (2004) Flu vaccine: recent supply shortages underscore ongoing challenges. Available: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05177t.pdf . Accessed 21 February 2007
[24] US Homeland Security Council (HSC) (2006) National strategy for pandemic influenza–implementation plan. Available: http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/nspi_implementation.pdf . Accessed 20 February 2007
[25] US Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) (2003) Estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States: 1990 to 2000. Available: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/Ill_Report_1211.pdf . Accessed 12 February 2008
[26] Viboud C, Boelle PY, Cauchemez S, Lavenu A, Valleron AJ, Flahault A, Carrat F (2004) Risk factors of influenza transmission in households. Br J Gen Pract 54:684–689
[27] Washington Post (2005) US builds stockpile of vaccine for flu pandemic. Available: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/29/AR2005112901849.html . Accessed 8 February 2008
[28] Washington Post (2007) CDC issues guidelines for battling flu pandemic. Available: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/01/AR2007020100850.html . Accessed 8 February 2008
[29] World Health Organization (WHO) (2006) Global pandemic influenza action plan to increase vaccine supply. Available: http://www.who.int/vaccines-documents/DocsPEF06/863.pdf . Accessed 20 February 2007
[30] World Health Organization (WHO) Writing Group (2006) Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures. Emerg Infect Dis 12:88–94
[31] Yee D, Bradford J (1999) Employment density study. Canadian METRO Council Technical Report, April 6 1999
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. It attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming the completeness or perfect precision of the matching.