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Modelling and analysis of the spread of AIDS epidemic with immigration of HIV infectives. (English) Zbl 1165.34377
Summary: We propose and analyze, a nonlinear mathematical model of the spread of HIV/AIDS in a population of varying size with immigration of infectives. It is assumed that susceptibles become infected via sexual contacts with infectives (also assumed to be infectious) and all infectives ultimately develop AIDS. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. Model dynamics is also discussed under two particular cases when there is no direct inflow of infectives. On analyzing these situations, it is found that the disease is always persistent if the direct immigration of infectives is allowed in the community. Further, in the absence of inflow of infectives, the endemicity of the disease is found to be higher if pre-AIDS individuals also interact sexually in comparison to the case when they do not take part in sexual interactions. Thus, if the direct immigration of infectives is restricted, the spread of infection can be slowed down. A numerical study of the model is also carried out to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.

34D20 Stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations
92C50 Medical applications (general)
92D30 Epidemiology
Full Text: DOI
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