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Study on a HIV/AIDS model with application to Yunnan province, China. (English) Zbl 1225.92051
Summary: This paper presents an epidemic model aiming at the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan, China. The total population in the model is restricted to high risk population. By the epidemic characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan province, the population is divided into two groups: injecting drug users (IDUs) and people engaged in commercial sex (PECS) which includes female sex workers (FSWs), and clients of female sex workers (C). For a better understanding of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics, we do some necessary mathematical analysis. The conditions and thresholds for the existence of four equilibria are established. We compute the reproduction number for each group independently, and show that when both the reproduction numbers are less than \(1\), the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. The local stabilities for other equilibria including two boundary equilibria and one positive equilibrium are figured out. When we omit the infectivity of AIDS patients, global stability of these equilibria are obtained. For the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit as much as possible prevalence data publicly available for Yunnan. Increasing strength of the control measure on high risk population is necessary to reduce the HIV/AIDS in Yunnan.

MSC:
92D30 Epidemiology
37N25 Dynamical systems in biology
34D20 Stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations
34D23 Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations
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