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Parametric mortality improvement rate modelling and projecting. (English) Zbl 1237.91129

Summary: We investigate the modelling of mortality improvement rates and the feasibility of projecting mortality improvement rates (as opposed to projecting mortality rates), using parametric predictor structures that are amenable to simple time series forecasting. This leads to our proposing a parallel dual approach to the direct parametric modelling and projecting of mortality rates. Comparisons of simulated life expectancy predictions (by the cohort method) using the England and Wales population mortality experiences for males and females under a variety of controlled data trimming exercises are presented in detail and comparisons are also made between the parallel modelling approaches.

MSC:

91B30 Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010)
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
91D20 Mathematical geography and demography
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