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Modeling sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in JiangSu province, China. (English) Zbl 1263.92032
Summary: HIV transmission by sexual activities exhibits a substantial increase and has become a primary transmission mode in China recently. A mathematical model is formulated so as to identify the key processes and parameters that could explain the quick increase in the proportion of heterosexual transmissions and further to assist in suggesting control measures urgently. On the basis of surveillance data on a number of people living with HIV/AIDS in the Jiangsu province, we parameterize the model and estimate the reproduction number by using the least squares method. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be \(R_{0}=3.52\) for the therapy scenario of heterosexual transmission.
The model predicts that the epidemic will peak in 2020. New infections are sensitive to the transmission coefficient, dependent on the condom use rate, and the risky activities during the early period are sensitive to the recruitment rate in the late period of the transmission, respectively. Antiviral therapy can either increase or decrease the new infections depending on both the extended life span of treated individuals and the infectiousness of the treated individuals. Hence, effective control measures during different transmission periods can be suggested, and antiretroviral therapy is a contentious issue for disease control.

MSC:
92C60 Medical epidemiology
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics
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