Weinberger, Naftali Faithfulness, coordination and causal coincidences. (English) Zbl 1398.00042 Erkenntnis 83, No. 2, 113-133 (2018). Summary: Within the causal modeling literature, debates about the causal faithfulness condition (CFC) have concerned whether it is probable that the parameters in causal models will have values such that distinct causal paths will cancel. As the parameters in a model are fixed by the probability distribution over its variables, it is initially puzzling what it means to assign probabilities to these parameters. I propose that to assign a probability to a parameter in a model is to treat that parameter as a function of a variable in an augmented model. By combining this proposal with widely adopted principles regarding which variables must be included in a model, I argue that the various proposed counterexamples to CFC involving coordinated parameters are not genuine counterexamples. I then consider the cases in which CFC fails due not to coordination, but by coincidence, and propose explanatory and predictive bases for ruling out such coincidences without presuming that they are improbable. The aim of the proposed defenses is not to show that CFC never fails, but rather to argue that its use in a particular context may be defended using general modeling assumptions rather than by relying on claims about how often it fails. Cited in 2 Documents MSC: 00A30 Philosophy of mathematics 62A01 Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics Software:TETRAD PDFBibTeX XMLCite \textit{N. Weinberger}, Erkenntnis 83, No. 2, 113--133 (2018; Zbl 1398.00042) Full Text: DOI References: [1] Aldrich, J, Autonomy, Oxford Economic Papers, 41, 15-34, (1989) · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041889 [2] Andersen, H, When to expect violations of causal faithfulness and why it matters, Philosophy of Science, 80, 672-683, (2013) · doi:10.1086/673937 [3] Cartwright, N. (1989). Nature’s capacities and their measurement. Oxford: Clarendon Press. [4] Cartwright, N. (1999). The dappled word: a study of the boundaries of science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. · Zbl 1003.00005 · doi:10.1017/CBO9781139167093 [5] Elwert, F; Winship, C, Endogenous selection bias: the problem of conditioning on a collider variable, Annual Review of Sociology, 40, 31-53, (2014) · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043455 [6] Fitelson, B; Hitchcock, C; Illari, PMK (ed.); Russo, F (ed.); Williamson, J (ed.), Probabilistic measures of causal strength, 600-627, (2011), Oxford · Zbl 1262.03018 · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0029 [7] Forster, M., Raskutti, G., Stern, R., & Weinberger, N. (forthcoming). The frugal inference of causal relations. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. · Zbl 1400.62016 [8] Glymour, C., Scheines, R., Sprites, P., & Kelly, K. (1987). Discovering causal structures. New York: Academic Press. · Zbl 0778.68004 [9] Hoover, K. D. (2001). Causality in macroeconomics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. · doi:10.1017/CBO9780511613050.005 [10] Lange, M, Spearman’s principle, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 46, 503-521, (1995) · doi:10.1093/bjps/46.4.503 [11] McDermott, M, Redundant causation, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 40, 523-544, (1995) · doi:10.1093/bjps/46.4.523 [12] Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. · Zbl 0959.68116 [13] Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. · Zbl 1188.68291 · doi:10.1017/CBO9780511803161 [14] Popper, K. (1959). The logic of scientific discovery. London: Routledge. · Zbl 0083.24104 [15] Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., & Scheines, R. (2000). Causation, prediction and search (2nd ed.). New York: Springer. · Zbl 0806.62001 [16] Steel, D, Homogeneity, selection, and the faithfulness condition, Minds and Machines, 16, 303-317, (2006) · doi:10.1007/s11023-006-9032-4 [17] Zhang, J, A comparison of three occam’s razors for Markovian causal models, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 64, 423-448, (2013) · Zbl 1327.60018 · doi:10.1093/bjps/axs005 [18] Zhang, J; Spirtes, P, Detection of unfaithfulness and robust causal inference, Minds and Machines, 7, 239-271, (2008) · doi:10.1007/s11023-008-9096-4 This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.