×

zbMATH — the first resource for mathematics

Intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model based on intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning. (English) Zbl 1400.62216
Summary: Fuzzy sets theory cannot describe the data comprehensively, which has greatly limited the objectivity of fuzzy time series in uncertain data forecasting. In this regard, an intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model is built. In the new model, a fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to divide the universe of discourse into unequal intervals, and a more objective technique for ascertaining the membership function and nonmembership function of the intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed. On these bases, forecast rules based on intuitionistic fuzzy approximate reasoning are established. At last, contrast experiments on the enrollments of the University of Alabama and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index are carried out. The results show that the new model has a clear advantage of improving the forecast accuracy.

MSC:
62M86 Inference from stochastic processes and fuzziness
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
PDF BibTeX XML Cite
Full Text: DOI
References:
[1] Song, Q.; Chissom, B. S., Fuzzy time series and its models, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 54, 3, 269-277, (1993) · Zbl 0792.62087
[2] Song, Q.; Chissom, B. S., Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series—part I, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 54, 1, 1-9, (1993)
[3] Song, Q.; Chissom, B. S., Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series—part II, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 62, 1, 1-8, (1994)
[4] Song, Q.; Leland, R. P.; Chissom, B. S., Fuzzy stochastic fuzzy time series and its models, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 88, 3, 333-341, (1997) · Zbl 0912.62099
[5] Hwang, J.-R.; Chen, S.-M.; Lee, C.-H., Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 100, 1–3, 217-228, (1998)
[6] Cheng, C.-H.; Chen, Y.-S.; Wu, Y.-L., Forecasting innovation diffusion of products using trend-weighted fuzzy time-series model, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 2, 1826-1832, (2009)
[7] Aladag, C. H.; Basaran, M. A.; Egrioglu, E.; Yolcu, U.; Uslu, V. R., Forecasting in high order fuzzy times series by using neural networks to define fuzzy relations, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 3, 4228-4231, (2009)
[8] Egrioglu, E.; Aladag, C. H.; Yolcu, U.; Uslu, V. R.; Basaran, M. A., Finding an optimal interval length in high order fuzzy time series, Expert Systems with Applications, 37, 7, 5052-5055, (2010)
[9] Singh, P.; Borah, B., An efficient time series forecasting model based on fuzzy time series, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 26, 10, 2443-2457, (2013)
[10] Huarng, K., Effective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 123, 3, 387-394, (2001) · Zbl 0992.91077
[11] Lu, W.; Pedrycz, W.; Liu, X.; Yang, J.; Li, P., The modeling of time series based on fuzzy information granules, Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 8, 3799-3808, (2014)
[12] Lu, W.; Chen, X. Y.; Pedrycz, W.; Liu, X. D.; Yang, J., Using interval information granules to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 57, 1, 1-18, (2015) · Zbl 1337.62306
[13] Chen, S.-M.; Chen, S.-W., Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships, IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, 45, 3, 405-417, (2015)
[14] Zadeh, L. A., Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 8, 3, 338-353, (1965) · Zbl 0139.24606
[15] Atanassov, K. T., Intuitionistic fuzzy sets, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 20, 1, 87-96, (1986) · Zbl 0631.03040
[16] Castillo, O.; Alanis, A.; Garcia, M.; Arias, H., An intuitionistic fuzzy system for time series analysis in plant monitoring and diagnosis, Applied Soft Computing, 7, 4, 1227-1233, (2007)
[17] Joshi, B. P.; Kumar, S., Intuitionistic fuzzy sets based method for fuzzy time series forecasting, Cybernetics and Systems, 43, 1, 34-47, (2012) · Zbl 1332.62377
[18] Zheng, K.-Q.; Lei, Y.-J.; Wang, R.; Wang, Y., Prediction of IFTS based on deterministic transition, Journal of Applied Sciences—Electronics and Information Engineering, 31, 2, 204-211, (2013)
[19] Zheng, K.-Q.; Lei, Y.-J.; Wang, R.; Xing, Y.-Q., Method of long-term IFTS forecasting based on parameter adaptation, Systems Engineering and Electronics, 36, 1, 99-104, (2014) · Zbl 1313.68255
[20] Chen, S.-M.; Chu, H.-P.; Sheu, T.-W., TAIEX forecasting using fuzzy time series and automatically generated weights of multiple factors, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part A:Systems and Humans, 42, 6, 1485-1495, (2012)
[21] Huarng, K.; Yu, T. H.-K., Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics—Part B: Cybernetics, 36, 2, 328-340, (2006)
[22] Chen, S.-M.; Tanuwijaya, K., Multivariate fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy time series and automatic clustering techniques, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, 8, 10594-10605, (2011)
[23] Cai, Q.; Zhang, D.; Zheng, W.; Leung, S. C., A new fuzzy time series forecasting model combined with ant colony optimization and auto-regression, Knowledge-Based Systems, 74, 61-68, (2015)
[24] Cai, Q.; Zhang, D.; Wu, B.; Leung, S. C. H., A novel stock forecasting model based on fuzzy time series and genetic algorithm, Procedia Computer Science, 18, 1155-1162, (2013)
[25] Chen, S.-M.; Kao, P.-Y., TAIEX forecasting based on fuzzy time series, particle swarm optimization techniques and support vector machines, Information Sciences, 247, 62-71, (2013)
[26] Liang, B. S.; Cao, D. L., Fuzzy Mathematics and Applications, (2007), Beijing, China: Science Press, Beijing, China
[27] Lei, Y. J.; Zhao, J.; Lu, Y. L.; Wang, Y.; Lei, Y.; Shi, Z. H., Theories and Applications of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set, (2014), Beijing, China: Science Press, Beijing, China
[28] Huarng, K.; Yu, T. H.-K., The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series, Physica A, 363, 2, 481-491, (2006)
[29] Liu, J.-W.; Chen, T.-L.; Cheng, C.-H.; Chen, Y.-H., Adaptive-expectation based multi-attribute FTS model for forecasting TAIEX, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 59, 2, 795-802, (2010) · Zbl 1189.91163
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. It attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming the completeness or perfect precision of the matching.