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A stochastic programming approach for shelter location and evacuation planning. (English) Zbl 1405.90083
Summary: Shelter location and traffic allocation decisions are critical for an efficient evacuation plan. In this study, we propose a scenario-based two-stage stochastic evacuation planning model that optimally locates shelter sites and that assigns evacuees to nearest shelters and to shortest paths within a tolerance degree to minimize the expected total evacuation time. Our model considers the uncertainty in the evacuation demand and the disruption in the road network and shelter sites. We present a case study for a potential earthquake in Istanbul. We compare the performance of the stochastic programming solutions to solutions based on single scenarios and mean values.

MSC:
90C11 Mixed integer programming
90C15 Stochastic programming
90B06 Transportation, logistics and supply chain management
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