Prévision de la demande de soins a partir d’un système d’information décentralisé. (English) Zbl 0545.90063

Summary: This paper deals with a prediction model for the nursing care demand in a surgical department. The model is based on a description of disease dynamics by semi-Markov stochastic processes and on the identification of typical care requirements associated with each state of disease. The prediction model has been implemented on a decentralized information system using a small desk computer, and the methodology has been tested in both a simulated and real environments. The results show a good predictive capability on an horizon of several days. This should permit the nursing care managers to improve their resource allocation.


90B99 Operations research and management science
60K15 Markov renewal processes, semi-Markov processes
Full Text: DOI EuDML