Statistical methods for forecasting. (English) Zbl 0587.62175

Abraham, Bovas; Ledolter, Johannes

Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Applied Probability and Statistics. New York etc.: John Wiley & Sons. XV, 445 p. (1983).

This book is about the statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts. Our objective is to provide an intermediate-level discussion of a variety of statistical forecasting methods and models, to explain their interconnections, and to bridge the gap between theory and practice.
Forecast systems are introduced in Chapter 1. Various aspects of regression models are discussed in Chapter 2, and special problems that occur when fitting regression models to time series data are considered. Chapters 3 and 4 apply the regression and smoothing approach to predict a single time series. A brief introduction to seasonal adjustment methods is also given.
Parametric models for nonseasonal and seasonal time series are explained in Chapters 5 and 6. Procedures for building such models and generating forecasts are discussed. Chapter 7 describes the relationships between the forecasts produced from exponential smoothing and those produced from parametric time series models.
Several advanced topics, such as transfer function modeling, state space models, Kalman filtering, Bayesian forecasting, and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison and control are given in Chapter 8. Exercises are provided in the back of the book for each chapter.
This book is oriented toward advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences. A calculus background, some familiarity with matrix algebra, and an intermediate course in mathematical statistics are sufficient prerequisites.

MSC:

62M20	Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
62-01	Introductory exposition (textbooks, tutorial papers, etc.) pertaining to statistics
62M10	Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)

Keywords:

least squares estimators; hypotheses testing; ARIMA models; prediction; short-term forecasts; regression models; seasonal adjustment methods; exponential smoothing; parametric time series models; transfer function modeling; state space models; Kalman filtering; Bayesian forecasting; forecast evaluation, comparison and control; Exercises