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How biased is the apparent error rate of a prediction rule? (English) Zbl 0621.62073
The considered problem is to correct the underestimation, so called optimism, of the error rate of prediction rule. This optimism is a consequence of the fact that the error rate is calculated from the prediction errors of the observations which are used to select the prediction model. The general expression of the optimism is related to the prediction rule. The case of the generalized linear model is considered. Special attention is given to the logistic model. Numerical results concerning an example, using several measures of prediction errors (Mallow’s Cp, cross validation, bootstrap and Akaike criterium) are given.
Reviewer: J.R.Mathieu

MSC:
62J05Linear regression
62J99Linear statistical inference
62F10Point estimation
62F99Parametric inference
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