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Uncertainty quantification in littoral erosion. (English) Zbl 1390.86020
Summary: We aim at quantifying the impact of flow state uncertainties in littoral erosion to provide confidence bounds on deterministic predictions of bottom morphodynamics. Two constructions of the bathymetry standard deviation are discussed. The first construction involves directional quantile-based extreme scenarios using what is known on the flow state probability density function (PDF) from on site observations. We compare this construction to a second cumulative one using the gradient by adjoint of a functional involving the energy of the system. These ingredients are illustrated for two models for the interaction between a soft bed and a flow in a shallow domain. Our aim is to keep the computational complexity comparable to the deterministic simulations taking advantage of what already available in our simulation toolbox.
MSC:
86A05 Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography
76M35 Stochastic analysis applied to problems in fluid mechanics
86-08 Computational methods for problems pertaining to geophysics
Software:
EnKF; TAPENADE
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