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A hybrid forecasting model based on bivariate division and a backpropagation artificial neural network optimized by chaos particle swarm optimization for day-ahead electricity price. (English) Zbl 1406.91288

Summary: In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO), the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN) method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

MSC:

91B74 Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.)
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
90C59 Approximation methods and heuristics in mathematical programming
68T05 Learning and adaptive systems in artificial intelligence
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