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Bayesian approaches to clinical trials. (English) Zbl 0704.62099
Bayesian statistics 3, Proc. 3rd Valencia Int. Meet., Altea/Spain 1987, 453-477 (1988).
Summary: [For the entire collection see Zbl 0702.00028.]
We summarize current statistical practice in clinical trials, and review Bayesian influence over the past 25 years. It is argued that insufficient attention has been paid to the dynamic context in which development of therapeutic innovations take place, in which experimenters, reviewers and consumers form different interest groups, and may well process the same evidence in different ways. We illustrate the elicitation of quantitative prior opinion in trial design and show how graphical expression of current belief can be related to regions of possible benefit with different clinical implications. Such displays may be used both for ethical monitoring of trials and to predict the consequences of further sampling.

MSC:
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
62C10 Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures
62L10 Sequential statistical analysis