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Smooth, identifiable supermodels of discrete DAG models with latent variables. (English) Zbl 1431.62230
Summary: We provide a parameterization of the discrete nested Markov model, which is a supermodel that approximates DAG models (Bayesian network models) with latent variables. Such models are widely used in causal inference and machine learning. We explicitly evaluate their dimension, show that they are curved exponential families of distributions, and fit them to data. The parameterization avoids the irregularities and unidentifiability of latent variable models. The parameters used are all fully identifiable and causally-interpretable quantities.
62H12 Estimation in multivariate analysis
62M45 Neural nets and related approaches to inference from stochastic processes
60J05 Discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces
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