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Spatial survival modelling of business re-opening after Katrina: survival modelling compared to spatial probit modelling of re-opening within 3, 6 or 12 months. (English) Zbl 07346644
Summary: H. Zhou and T. Hanson [in: Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics. Cham: Springer. 215–246 (2015; Zbl 1334.62163); J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113, No. 522, 571–581 (2018; Zbl 1398.62266); spBayesSurv: Bayesian modeling and analysis of spatially correlated survival data. R package version 1.1.4. (2020), https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=spBayesSurv] and H. Zhou, T. Hanson and J. Zhang [“spBayesSurv: Fitting Bayesian spatial survival models using R”, J. Stat. Softw. 92, No. 9, 1–33 (2020; doi:10.18637/jss.v092.i09)] present methods for estimating spatial survival models using areal data. This article applies their methods to a dataset recording New Orleans business decisions to re-open after Hurricane Katrina; the data were included in [J. P. LeSage et al., “New Orleans business recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina”, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. A 174, No. 4, 1007–1027 (2011; doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00712.x)]. In two articles [J. P. LeSage et al., “Do what the neighbours do”, Significance 8, No. 4, 160–163 (2011; doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2011.00520.x); “New Orleans business recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina”, loc. cit.], spatial probit models are used to model spatial dependence in this dataset, with decisions to re-open aggregated to the first 90, 180 and 360 days. We re-cast the problem as one of examining the time-to-event records in the data, right-censored as observations ceased before 175 businesses had re-opened; we omit businesses already re-opened when observations began on Day 41. We are interested in checking whether the conclusions about the covariates using aspatial and spatial probit models are modified when applying survival and spatial survival models estimated using MCMC and INLA. In general, we find that the same covariates are associated with re-opening decisions in both modelling approaches. We do however find that data collected from three streets differ substantially, and that the streets are probably better handled separately or that the street effect should be included explicitly.
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