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Mathematical models of innovation diffusion with stage structure. (English) Zbl 1106.37309
Summary: Mathematical models with stage structures are proposed to describe the process of awareness, evaluation and decision-making. First, a system of ordinary differential equations is presented that incorporates the awareness stage and the decision-making stage. If the adoption rate is bilinear and imitations are dominant, we find a threshold above which innovation diffusion is successful. Further, if the adoption rate has a higher nonlinearity, it is shown that there exist bistable equilibria and a region such that an innovation diffusion is successful inside and is unsuccessful outside. Secondly, a model with a time delay is proposed that includes an evaluation stage of a product. It is proved that the system exhibits stability switches. The bifurcation direction of equilibria is discussed, too.

37N40Dynamical systems in optimization and economics
90B50Management decision making, including multiple objectives
91B42Consumer behavior, demand theory
Full Text: DOI
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