×

Sequential change detection revisited. (English) Zbl 1133.62063

Summary: In sequential change detection, existing performance measures differ significantly in the way they treat the time of change. By modeling this quantity as a random time, we introduce a general framework capable of capturing and better understanding most well-known criteria and also propose new ones. For a specific new criterion that constitutes an extension of G. Lorden’s [Ann. Math. Stat. 42, 1897–1908 (1971; Zbl 0255.62067)] performance measure, we offer the optimum structure for detecting a change in the constant drift of a Brownian motion and a formula for the corresponding optimum performance.

MSC:

62L10 Sequential statistical analysis
62L15 Optimal stopping in statistics
60G40 Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory

Citations:

Zbl 0255.62067

References:

[1] Beibel, M. (1996). A note on Ritov’s Bayes approach to the minmax property of the CUSUM procedure. Ann. Stat. 24 1804-1812. · Zbl 0868.62063 · doi:10.1214/aos/1032298296
[2] Bayraktar, E. and Dayanik, S. (2006). Poisson disorder problem with exponential penalty for delay. Math. Oper. Res. 31 217-233. · Zbl 1278.62132 · doi:10.1287/moor.1060.0190
[3] Bayraktar, E., Dayanik, S. and Karatzas, I. (2006). Adaptive Poisson disorder problem. Ann. App. Prob. 16 1190-1261. · Zbl 1104.62093 · doi:10.1214/105051606000000312
[4] Karatzas, I. (2003). A note on Bayesian detection of change-points with an expected miss criterion. Stat. Decis. 21 3-13. · Zbl 1037.62080 · doi:10.1524/stnd.21.1.3.20317
[5] Karatzas, I. and Shreve, S. E. (1988). Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus . Springer, New York. · Zbl 0638.60065
[6] Lorden, G. (1971). Procedures for reacting to a change in distribution. Ann. Math. Stat. 42 1897-1908. · Zbl 0255.62067 · doi:10.1214/aoms/1177693055
[7] Mei, Y. (2006). Comment on “A note on optimal detection of a change in distribution” by Benjamin Yakir. Ann. Statist. 34 1570-1576. · Zbl 1113.62092 · doi:10.1214/009053606000000362
[8] Moustakides, G. V. (1986). Optimal stopping times for detecting changes in distributions. Ann. Statist. 14 1379-1387. · Zbl 0612.62116 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176350164
[9] Moustakides, G. V. (2004). Optimality of the CUSUM procedure in continuous time. Ann. Statist. 32 302-315. · Zbl 1105.62368 · doi:10.1214/aos/1079120138
[10] Page, E. S. (1954). Continuous inspection schemes. Biometrika 41 100-115. JSTOR: · Zbl 0056.38002 · doi:10.1093/biomet/41.1-2.100
[11] Peskir, G. and Shiryaev, A. N. (2002). Solving the Poisson disorder problem. In Advances in Finance and Stochastics (K. Sandmann and P. J. Schönbucher, eds.) 295-312. Springer, Berlin. · Zbl 1009.60033
[12] Pollak, M. (1985). Optimal detection of a change in distribution. Ann. Statist. 13 206-227. · Zbl 0573.62074 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176346587
[13] Poor, H. V. (1998). Quickest detection with exponential penalty for delay. Ann. Statist. 26 2179-2205. · Zbl 0927.62077 · doi:10.1214/aos/1024691466
[14] Protter, P. E. (2004). Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations , 2nd ed. Springer, Berlin. · Zbl 1041.60005
[15] Ritov, Y. (1990). Decision theoretic optimality of the CUSUM procedure. Ann. Statist. 18 1464-1469. · Zbl 0712.62073 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176347761
[16] Rodionov, S. R. and Overland, J. E. (2005). Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem. ICES J. Marine Science 62 328-332.
[17] Shiryayev, A. N. (1978). Optimal Stopping Rules . Springer, New York. · Zbl 0391.60002
[18] Shiryayev, A. N. (1996). Minimax optimality of the method of cumulative sums (CUSUM) in the case of continuous time. Russ. Math. Surv. 51 750-751. · Zbl 0882.62076 · doi:10.1070/RM1996v051n04ABEH002986
[19] Taylor, H. M. (1975). A stopped Brownian Motion formula. Ann. Probab. 3 234-246. JSTOR: · Zbl 0303.60072 · doi:10.1214/aop/1176996395
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.