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Forecast with the use of statistical and expert methods. (English. Russian original) Zbl 1156.93397
Autom. Remote Control 69, No. 6, 1023-1034 (2008); translation from Avtom. Telemekh. 2008, No. 6, 129-142 (2008).
Summary: Consideration is given to a combination of different methods for the forecast of values of the social-economic index. One group of methods estimate the value of the index in the future by econometric analysis basing on its dynamics in the past. A new notion of optimal initial vector of forecast is introduced. Other methods are based on experts’ forecast whose conclusions accumulate nonnumerical, incomplete, and inexact information. The final estimate is delivered by a combination of econometric and expert forecasts with weighting coefficients; they are chosen by a researcher taking the volume and quality of the used expert and statistical information into account.
MSC:
93E10 Estimation and detection in stochastic control theory
91B74 Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.)
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