A novel grey forecasting model and its modeling mechanism. (Chinese. English summary) Zbl 1212.93009

Cui, Jie; Dang, Yaoguo; Liu, Sifeng

Control Decis. 24, No. 11, 1702-1706 (2009).

Summary: The aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting accuracy of grey forecasting and broaden its application fields. A novel grey forecasting model (NGM\((1, 1, k)\)) is developed which is based on the non-homogeneous dispersion index function, and the formula computing the parameters of the novel grey model is proposed using the least squares method. The function of the time response sequence of the novel grey model is solved by taking differential equations as a deductive reasoning tool. The modeling accuracy of the novel grey model is theoretically and experimentally analyzed. Research results show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed grey NGM(1,1,\(k\)) model.

MSC:

93A30	Mathematical modelling of systems (MSC2010)
93C41	Control/observation systems with incomplete information

Keywords:

grey systems; grey forecasting model; simulation accuracy; modeling mechanism