Analysis of HFMD in China using a SEIQR model. (English) Zbl 1251.92037

Summary: This paper presents a mathematical model of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) that incorporates quarantine in the children population. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined and recovered subgroups and considers the exposed (infected by HFMD virus but not infectious) individuals may transmit virus to the others. The model simulations agree with the HFMD data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number \(R_0=1.0121\) for the HFMD transmission in China and predict that the number of the HFMD is increasing but will eventually maintain at a stable level. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of \(R_0\) in terms of the model parameters and demonstrate that quarantine is very effective on controlling the spread of the disease.


92D30 Epidemiology
35Q92 PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences
Full Text: Link