Combining forecasts using the least trimmed squares. (English) Zbl 1264.62087

Summary: Employing a recently derived asymptotic representation of the least trimmed squares estimator, the combinations of the forecasts with constraints are studied. Under the assumption of the unbiasedness of individual forecasts it is shown that the combination without intercept and with constraints imposed on the estimate of the regression coefficients that they sum to one, is better than others. A numerical example is included to support theoretical conclusions.


62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
62F30 Parametric inference under constraints
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
65C60 Computational problems in statistics (MSC2010)
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