Modelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China. (English) Zbl 1273.92055

Summary: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of the Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of the Shandong Province. By carrying out a sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.


92D30 Epidemiology
34C25 Periodic solutions to ordinary differential equations
34K25 Asymptotic theory of functional-differential equations
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