Estimating the use of public lands: integrated modeling of open populations with convolution likelihood ecological abundance regression. (English) Zbl 1435.62326

Gruber, Lutz F.; Stuber, Erica F.; Wszola, Lyndsie S.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

Bayesian Anal. 14, No. 4, 1173-1199 (2019).

Summary: We present an integrated open population model where the population dynamics are defined by a differential equation, and the related statistical model utilizes a Poisson binomial convolution likelihood. Key advantages of the proposed approach over existing open population models include the flexibility to predict related, but unobserved quantities such as total immigration or emigration over a specified time period, and more computationally efficient posterior simulation by elimination of the need to explicitly simulate latent immigration and emigration. The viability of the proposed method is shown in an in-depth analysis of outdoor recreation participation on public lands, where the surveyed populations changed rapidly and demographic population closure cannot be assumed even within a single day.

MSC:

62M10	Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62P10	Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
62H30	Classification and discrimination; cluster analysis (statistical aspects)
60E07	Infinitely divisible distributions; stable distributions

Keywords:

integrated population model; panel data methods; discrete valued distributions; unevenly spaced time series

Software:

rSGDLM; Stan

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