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Intraday-patterns in the colombian exchange market index and var: evaluation of different approaches. (English) Zbl 06266452

Summary: This paper evaluates the performance of 16 different parametric, non-parametric and one semi-parametric specifications to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) for the Colombian Exchange Market Index (IGBC). Using high frequency data (10-minute returns), we model the variance of the returns using GARCH and TGARCH models, that take in account the leverage effect, the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. We estimate those models under two assumptions regarding returns behavior: Normal distribution and t distribution. This exercise is performed using two different ten-minute intraday samples: 2006-2007 and 2008-2009. For the first sample, we found that the best model is a \(TGARCH(1,1)\) without day-of the week or hour-of-the-day effects. For the 2008-2009 sample, we found that the model with the correct conditional VaR coverage would be the \(GARCH(1,1)\) with the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. Both methods perform better under the t distribution assumption.

MSC:

62-XX Statistics

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