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Elusive Sleeping Beauty. (Insaisissable Belle au bois dormant.) (French. English summary) Zbl 1373.60003

Summary: In this paper, three pathways are discussed so as to resolve the famous Sleeping Beauty problem, a self-location puzzle that causes a troubling probabilistic paradox: the frequentist arbitration proposes an ontological reading of probabilities when the Bayesian approach reaches a limit; the analogy with the Monty Hall game tries to conceive new doxastic revision rules that apply to both problems; finally, the lesson of the companions encourages the sharing and harmonization of probabilistic estimates between rational agents. All three arguments are briefly recalled, then some portions are scrutinized, criticized or on the contrary supported by new ideas like the Four Beauties variation.

MSC:

60A05 Axioms; other general questions in probability
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